Halfway There

Can we truly be halfway anywhere? I'm halfway through my 50 book challenge this year (and it's still March), so should I stop reading after my fiftieth book? I'm halfway through my medical course (there's a halfway dinner this Friday), so should I stop studying medicine after my graduation? 

The most recent book I read, The Age of Absurdity by Michael Foley is about why it is becoming harder for us to be happy in our modern age, and one of the answers he found was the illusion of potential. We see this almost everyday, everywhere: Buy 'this', it is good for you (substitute 'this' with phones, laptops, cars, houses, clothes, books, holiday trips, college degree, love, marriage, power etc.).

The point he was making, I think, was that we must not be fooled by the illusion of easily becoming happy, satisfied, and fulfilled by merely owning those items. In fact, it is as likely that we become un-happy, un-satisfied and un-fulfilled when we get things like a new phone, car, trip etc. This dissatisfaction worsens as we get bombarded with adverts which suggest even more potential from buying newer products.

However, I'm not trying to ask anyone to consider dispensing the purchase of anything, or disbelieve the potential of everything. No, what I suggest is that we should appreciate our current predicament - Happiness is not about having what you want, it is wanting what you have. Instead of whingeing (read:complaining) and keep asking for more, let's be rational and consider what's best for us to do now, based not just upon the potential these things purport to bring us, but also on our current status (Is my phone/car/laptop working well enough for now?).

In other words, do not dwell too much on the potential of stuff - like, say what my medical degree, or reading 50 books - might bring us. What drives us to work/study/live should not be  the 'potential' of future happiness. We should work/study/live for the sake of working/studying/living - because we want it, like it, enjoy it, deserve it.

Of course, in due time, we will eventually discover the potential of doing/owning things naturally; and be fulfilled, happy and satisfied - in reality, not fantasy. So, to answer my first question: No, I'm not halfway there. I'm here.

Election Economics

With Malaysia's economy doing so well right now, even Pak Lah could have won the recent by-elections - as BN have done so under Najib's leadership. 

If the numbers I got from the Economist are right, our inflation rate (CPI =+2.4%), and unemployment rate are both low (3.2%) - as compared to, say, Egypt's high inflation rate (CPI =10.8%) and high unemployment rate (8.9%). In fact, our economy grew 7.4% last year.

Forget about all the other issues in the media like HINDRAF, Anwar's sodomy trial, etc. The only thing that preoccupies people's mind at the voting booth is their own wellbeing. 

Am I happy? Yes, of course. I got a job, a car, a house and my family is all well. Why bother changing the government if everything is doing well.

Am I being too cynical? Maybe. But if you think about it, what I'm getting at here makes sense. The country's economy is a good indicator of our government's overall competence - taking into account all other factors like the global economy - although it's a gross oversimplification. Even when it's down to pure luck, the bottom line is all that matters.

In good times, the incumbent government would get almost all the credits for a healthy economy - whether they deserve it or not - and get elected again easily. On the flip side, in bad times, as in the 2008 'political tsunami' in Malaysia (with petrol price increase), people would always punish the government in power (BN lost the 2/3rd majority).

In reality when people vote, they care less about the real causes of a financial crisis (when there is one), or a poor local economy. When a lot of people cannot find job; when petrol and food prices are intolerably high; they would protest with their votes - although a poor economy is not always the result of poor governance. Look at the list below: 

Year     %vote (BN)  Leadership

1995       65.2            Mahathir

1998       56.5            Mahathir

2004      63.9            Pak Lah

2008      52.2            Pak Lah

(source: Wikipedia)

It's not so obvious now that Pak Lah's weak leadership could alone help explain why BN lost the 2/3rd majority in 2008, as Mahathir also suffered badly in 1998 from the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis. The better explanation - perhaps a more cynical one - would be that it's all about the money.

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Of course, this is not a new insight. This paper written in 2004 has found that the economy does indeed influence the outcome of elections (although it may be as likely that there is just an association, instead of causation). More interestingly, the author also found that voters in richer and better educated countries are better able to distinguish 'competence' of the incumbent government (World GDP growth - National GDP growth), from luck (World GDP growth alone).